An exploration of the determinants of the Irish dairy sector’s performance over the next ten years in the post milk quota era

Abstract

The removal of the EU milk quotas on April 1, 2015 after more than 30 years since their establishment is viewed as a significant growth opportunity for Ireland and the EU overall. The primary reason for deciding to end milk quotas is due to the considerable increase in consumption of dairy products in recent years, especially on the world market. With this trend projected to continue into the future, the previous quota regime is viewed as a measure that prevented Irish producers from responding to growing world demand. The objective of this thesis is to develop a ten year forecast for Ireland in a post EU milk quota era. The central question that this dissertation leads from is establishing the impact that the abolishment of EU milk quotas is having on the current milk price in Ireland. From there, a short to medium assessment of how Irish dairy production is likely to evolve in the next one to four years is projected, followed by a forecast of Irelands long-term prospects up to and including 2025. The target markets of Irish dairy produce are then assessed including Ireland’s production strategy. Finally, an in-depth assessment of how farming structures will change as a result of EU milk quota removal is then forecasted.